I sit here at work, my desk is a mess and all I can think about is, "Am I going to have a job tomorrow?" Many may not understand why I am thinking that and many do. With unemployment at 5.5% and inflation at 4.5% the outlook on the economy is not good. It is much better then it was in the recession of 1982 and 1983 where inflation was at 14.5% and unemployment was at 7.5%. But still worse that many of the recessions that we have lived through. I work in manufacturing and jobs are being cut in that sector at a higher pace then any other. That is why I am thinking what I am thinking.
A misnomer is that the American economy follows the automotive industry. That is not true. They economy follows agriculture. With the rise in the price of Crude Oil, the cost of bringing food to the table is increasing. The rise is food cost is more closely related to the rise in crude prices and not the rise in demand for feed stock and the manufacture of ethanol. Diesel fuel is used in everything from the transportation to the planting and harvesting of the crops. Fertilizer is primarily an oil based product. So, as fuel cost rise so does the cost it takes in growing our food.
With ethanol as an additional draw on our food production, where does the solution lay? Second generation biofuels that use the parts of the plant and plants that are currently not wanted may be part of the solution. But, I say, why worry? Corn based ethanol does pull from feed stock, but as a nation, we will find a way to meet demands. Ingenuity is what built this nation and when the return on investment is there, we find a way to get things done. When put to the task we will find a solution. Yield per acre is at an all time high. There are millions of acres that lay fallow and will not support the crops that are needed. If the benefit is there, these lands will be used, improved and become viable farmlands. The yield per acre will increase and the demand will be met. Isn't that what our free market society is based on? If there is a demand, and a profit can be made in the supply to that demand, someone will find a way to do it.
I look at the automotive industry in the same way. Our domestic makers are fighting to stay afloat. For years they have been trying to improve fuel economy and emissions. While advances have been made, there is still a long way to go. And now it may be too late. How should they go about making the improvements? Do they need to develop new engines? No, they don't have the billions it cost in development of a powertrain and they don't need to. My suggestion would be to send two engines to the each of the top engineering colleges in the world. One engine is to be used to achieve the best possible fuel economy, and the other for emissions improvements. At the end of the school year, the engines are evaluated and the top school is given a scholarship or the students are given internships. Open up the research to the scholastic world and don't just keep it behind closed doors. Would this work? Would enough gains be found that the CAFÉ requirements could be exceeded well before current deadlines? I say yes, but we won't know until it is tried.
Forget the bells and wistles, and get back to the basics. We don't need to solve all our engery problems now, but we do need to make some progress for the future. If we were able to reduce our need for oil by 5% this year, and an addtion percent per year after that, within 10 years we would be using 36% of the fuel we currently use.
